Should Apple purchase Adobe?
Author: Thomas Gonzalez
I am sure I am not the only one who has posed this question, I know there was lots of conjecture about this a couple of years ago. But I think the argument is even stronger today. It appears that Apple is really trying to take advantage of the fiasco that is Windows Vista and is pushing new PC buyers to make the jump to Apple (hey it worked on me) But, Apple is going to have a tougher going with the developer crowd and the corporate culture. If Apple ever hopes to jump the chasm and become an integral part of the enterprise they are going to have offer compelling reasons for developers to jump ship as well and write software for Apple. Right now the only compelling reason for developers to make the switch and write software for Apple is because they become so enthralled with the Apple experience that they want to be part of it (once again, I am guilty as charged) or they are specifically targeting OS X or the iPhone for their offering.
But, as motivated as I am to develop the next great iPhone/OS X app, each and every time I put forth an earnest effort to do so I am struck by how antiquated the development tools, languages, and platforms feel to me. For a corporate developer who just needs to get the job done and could care less about how sexy something looks/feels they will have even less impetus to make the jump. One thing that Microsoft did extremely well, although not so much any more, was to practically spoon feed developers with their technologies. It was SOOO easy to pick up a MS technology, not necessarily because they were the best technologies, but because MS invested heavily in providing training materials, live events, practically giving away their software via MSDN, etc. Now, I see the open source movements doing a better job of this with the robust communities and communication infrastructures that have developed as a result of the internet.
So here I sit at a cross-roads, do I invest the time to develop an application that is specific to Apple either via Objective-C/XCode or via proprietary AJAX for Safari extended WebKit? Well, either choice seem like several steps backwards from where I am right now. Currently I develop in Adobe Flex, and while the tooling can stand room for improvement, it is still far ahead of XCode. But where Flex really shines is the combination of the language and the design patterns it easily supports in combination with the power and ubiquity of the Flash player. Having to go back and write AJAX code and deal with browser compatibility issues and the lack of robust profiling/tracing tools is just painful. Once you know how much better it can be, having to go back and use tooling/languages that you were using 8 years ago just hurts. The XCode/Objective-C road does not appear any better. Damn Flex and Adobe, if I never went down this path I wouldn't know any better, and I would be happily struggling with AJAX, HTML5, and excited that I now have a Canvas HTML element that has a graphics context I could draw to.
Okay, back to my original theme for this post, why should Apple purchase Adobe? If for nothing else, Flash and Flex. If Apple controlled Flash they could easily put it on the iPhone and still force their lock-in for flash-enabled iPhone apps having to be distributed via their AppStore. With ActionScript, Flash, and AIR in their back pocket, what they have is universal development platform that would open the doors to a much wider developer audience. Because a developer knows when they are targeting Flash/AIR they are not only targeting Apple but pretty much any OS/Client. In the words of Bob Warfield, the friction is greatly reduced. It would also put Apple on practically EVERY desktop because Flash sits on every desktop. Similar to the logic I used in purchasing a Mac Pro, where I knew worse case I could run Windows natively (but have yet to do so) I would be able to develop for the iPhone/Apple knowing that my application would also work anywhere elese. Even better, instead of having to learn the ins-and-outs of a new language based on an old development paradigm I would either leverage the knowledge I already have (if I knew Flex) or be investing my time in learning something new, but more powerful and more efficient.
But, wait, there is more to this argument outside of my myopic developer/engineer perspective. Apple is really pushing to deliver software to creative folks, albeit more at the hobby level, but nonetheless what company has the best and most established creative software? Adobe!!! If Apple wants to position themselves as the company that creates the hardware, software and distribution channels for creative content (music, video, multi-media, etc.) why not also control and offer the tools to create such content... it would go a long way to reducing the friction in some of these marketplaces, where the creative authors can seamlessly distribute their works via the Apple channel. This would allow them to target all strata of their verticals that they want to sell into, and these offerings create a self-reinforcing viral effect. This said, I am not sure how comfortable I am with a company like Apple holding such a dominant position in the market based on their historically closed nature.
And this is where I come to why I think it might not work, and that is due to cultural issues between the two companies. Adobe has been making GREAT strides to become a much more transparent and open company, they are investing heavily in contributing open source code and really seem to be figuring out how to be a good corporate citizen while still turning a profit. Apple, not so much. They seem to still cling the old-school closed source mindset, where everything is shrouded in secrecy and tightly controlled. This does have its advantages, but long term I don't think it will benefit them. So what happens when a company like Apple acquires a company like Adobe with the differences in their respective cultures? I don't think it would be a very pretty picture and could have the potential to destroy Adobe and the value they bring to the table. But from a purely mercenary/capitalistic view I think it would still be in Apple's best interest to do so.
From looking at the Yahoo finance stats today, here are some metrics for both companies. It would seem with Apple's cash on hand they have enough resources to make something like this happen (they have almost as much cash on hand as Microsoft) if they were motivated to do so.
Apple:
Market Cap: $148B
Annual Sales (2007): $24B
Total Cash: $18B
Adobe:
Market Cap: $19B
Annual Sales (2007): $3.1B
Total Cash: $1.57B
Great argument for why a logical, dispassionate, and objective company would acquire Adobe and dramatically enhance their strategic position.
Of course Apple and Steve Jobs are never logical, dispassionate, or objective. It's just not what they think is important. Nor are they big believers that developers are important. Interesting blog post recently on how little Apple actually spends on R&D.
I see Apple as more Armani and Porsche Design and less Porsche engineering. Some people ask, "What would Google do?" In Apple's case, you might be closer to predicting if you ask, "What would Armani or [insert favorite arbiter of style] do?"
Cheers,
BW
You are right, a lot of people have this question in mind...
If so, what's the future about softwares like LightRoom or Premiere?
I'm afraid that Flex/AIR won't be the end-all be-all for enterprise apps. Processors are getting more and more cores, yet the Flash player is stuck with a single thread. By the time they make every flex class threadsafe, microsoft will have spammed the development community with really cheap silverlight tools. I'm rooting for Adobe, but we'll just have to see how it all shakes out.
Bob,
Great point, there is never any telling what a company like Apple will do with someone like Steve Jobs at helm....
I will google around for that blog post on their R&D, sounds interesting.
Your analogy to Armani/Porsche does seem very apt... Amazing that company can do as well as Apple basically selling style at a consumer level. It makes me wonder what intrinsic aspect of style/beauty that Apple delivers resonates so deeply with some consumers like myself, that they are willing to pay a premium for it.
Luntereiner,
Good question about the future of the software for both companies, as there is some significant overlap and obviously maintaining two sets of products would not be realistic. I also am not sure how I feel about such a merger and don't really know if it would be a good thing or bad.
Andrew,
I hear you on Flex/AIR not being the be-all-end-all. There are several areas that would need improvement. Multi-threading for one. SInce the flash player at its core is a stack-based system and does not run threads it provides safety, but at the odds of providing a more scalable foundation. There are other limits/drawbacks to flex as well. The IDE is not nearly as advanced as visual studio, its a much different development paradigm than .NET, and there is not a very large developer community to draw from, thus IT will have a harder time starting up projects where resources are limited. Time will tell who wins that battle between Flash and Sliverlight within the Enterprise.
- Tom